Michael C. Bouchard & Co.
Plate II · Essay

AI's Real Costs

Policy failures dressed as technical problems.

Every major AI problem is a policy failure wearing a technical mask. The technology is exposing rot that was already there, and accelerating the consequences of choices we made decades ago.

This isn't doomerism. Progress is being made on every front. But understanding what's actually wrong is the first step toward fixing it, and the actual problems are political, not technical.

Is AI Destroying the Power Grid?.

AI didn't break the grid. AI is the first major new demand to arrive after decades of politicians refusing to spend money on infrastructure.

THE FRAMING WE'RE SOLD

"AI is straining the grid! Data centers need too much power!"

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING

Building new transmission lines takes four to eight years in advanced economies. Wait times for critical grid components like transformers have doubled in the past three years. The American power grid has been underfunded and neglected for generations.

The 2003 Northeast blackout showed the infrastructure was fragile. Texas freezing in 2021 showed we hadn't invested in resilience. Nobody gets re-elected for maintaining transformers.

PJM, the largest grid operator in the US, forecasts electricity demand will surge nearly 40% by 2039. Meanwhile, 40 gigawatts of existing generation, 21% of their capacity, is at risk of retirement by 2030. This collision was predictable. It was predicted. And nobody acted.

Coal generation is up 13% nationally through September 2025. New AI data centers are being built with dedicated natural gas plants on-site. The environmental promises of tech companies are collapsing not because sustainability is hard, but because there's no penalty for failure.

PROGRESS BEING MADE

The IEA projects that by 2035, the data center electricity mix will flip from 60% fossil fuels to 60% clean power. Solar production grew 29% in 2025. Renewables are projected to grow by over 450 TWh to meet data center demand. Tech companies are signing nuclear partnerships and investing in small modular reactors.

WHAT'S STILL NEEDED

Faster grid modernization. Streamlined permitting for transmission. Ensuring AI's growth doesn't crowd out household electrification. These are policy choices, not technical barriers.

Is AI Destroying Jobs?.

Tech workers built the thing that automates their own work. That's not a bug. It's the logical endpoint of an industry that celebrated "disruption" while pretending disruption wouldn't eventually come home.

THE FRAMING WE'RE SOLD

"AI is destroying jobs! Workers are helpless against automation!"

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING

Unemployment among 20- to 30-year-olds in tech-exposed occupations has risen by almost 3 percentage points since early 2025. Occupations that embraced generative AI most intensively showed the largest unemployment gains.

But here's the broader picture: the overall labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT's release 33 months ago. Employment gains from AI and data center construction dwarf displacement effects. Goldman Sachs estimates unemployment will increase by only half a percentage point during the AI transition.

The real question isn't "will AI take jobs?" It's: why do we have no social safety net for technological transitions we've known were coming for 20 years?

Germany has robust worker retraining. Denmark has "flexicurity." The US has thoughts and prayers.

PROGRESS BEING MADE

The disruption is smaller and slower than feared. Upskilling programs are emerging across industries. AI-related job creation in data center construction and AI development is creating new employment pathways.

WHAT'S STILL NEEDED

Serious investment in transition support for affected workers. Realistic timelines for policy, not panic, not denial. Focus on which jobs transform versus which disappear.

Why Do AI Systems Keep Lying?.

We don't let pharmaceutical companies ship drugs with 35% error rates. We don't let car manufacturers sell brakes that work "most of the time." There's no reason AI gets a pass.

THE FRAMING WE'RE SOLD

"AI hallucinations are a hard technical problem! The models just make things up!"

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING

The rate of false claims generated by top AI chatbots nearly doubled within a year, climbing from 18% in August 2024 to 35% in August 2025. OpenAI's o3 model hallucinates 33% of the time; o4-mini hits 48%.

Yes, hallucinations are technically challenging. But the current administration has explicitly said it doesn't want AI regulation for the first decade. That's not caution. That's a policy choice to let companies ship unreliable products at scale with zero accountability.

OpenAI's Whisper system fabricated content in medical transcriptions. Air Canada's chatbot misled customers about bereavement fares, leading to legal consequences. The "technical challenge" would get solved faster if there were actual consequences for shipping products that lie to users.

PROGRESS BEING MADE

Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash achieves just 0.7% hallucination rates. 76% of enterprises now include human-in-the-loop processes. Retrieval-augmented generation is reducing hallucinations in specific domains.

WHAT'S STILL NEEDED

Clear labeling when AI-generated content may be unreliable. Liability frameworks for harmful AI outputs. Continued investment in grounding and verification.

Why Is Computer Memory Getting So Expensive?.

Three companies control the global memory supply. This isn't a supply chain problem. It's what happens when you let markets consolidate into oligopolies for 40 years.

THE FRAMING WE'RE SOLD

"AI demand is unprecedented! No one could have predicted this shortage!"

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING

In December 2025, Micron exited consumer markets entirely to chase AI profits. Now only Samsung and SK Hynix remain for consumer RAM. Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta placed open-ended orders with memory suppliers, accepting as much supply as available regardless of cost. DDR5 memory module prices more than doubled in Tokyo's Akihabara district. Dell's COO said the company had "never witnessed costs escalating at the current pace."

We've watched antitrust enforcement wither for 40 years. We've let mergers consolidate industry after industry. We've let "efficiency" trump resilience. And now we're shocked that a demand surge creates economy-wide ripples.

PROGRESS BEING MADE

New Samsung fabs coming online mid-decade. CHIPS Act funding new domestic manufacturing. Forecasts suggest DRAM prices may normalize by 2028 as capacity catches up.

WHAT'S STILL NEEDED

Diversified manufacturing geography. Strategic reserves of critical components. Preventing any single sector from monopolizing supply chains. Actual antitrust enforcement.

Why Is the Internet Filling Up with AI Garbage?.

Platforms aren't victims of AI slop. They're incentivizing it. The algorithm doesn't care if content is true, useful, or human-made. It cares if you keep scrolling.

THE FRAMING WE'RE SOLD

"AI-generated content is flooding the internet! The algorithms can't keep up!"

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING

Nearly 1 in 10 of the fastest-growing YouTube channels worldwide in July 2025 consisted solely of AI-generated videos. Merriam-Webster chose "slop" as its 2025 word of the year. State-sponsored propaganda campaigns have embraced AI-generated content at scale.

Platforms have spent 20 years arguing they can't be held responsible for user-generated content. Section 230 shields them from liability. Their business model is engagement-at-all-costs. Instagram has been rewarding AI-based content with huge algorithmic boosts and payouts. Slop is cheap, infinite, and engaging enough to sell ads against.

We could require content provenance labeling. We could impose liability for knowingly amplifying synthetic misinformation. We could break up platforms too big to moderate. Instead, we ask "why is there so much garbage?" as if it's a mystery.

PROGRESS BEING MADE

YouTube updated rules to penalize mass-produced AI uploads in 2024-2025. Content provenance standards are gaining adoption. AI detection tools are improving.

WHAT'S STILL NEEDED

Mandatory disclosure of AI-generated content. Economic disincentives for slop farms. Platform accountability for what they amplify.

Are Tech Companies Lying About Their Environmental Impact?.

Tech companies aren't failing on sustainability because it's hard. They're failing because there's no penalty for failure. You can pledge anything, miss targets, and nothing happens.

THE FRAMING WE'RE SOLD

"Tech companies are working hard on sustainability! They're buying renewable energy credits!"

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING

A Guardian investigation found that from 2020 to 2022, real emissions from company-owned data centers of Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple were more than 600% higher than officially reported.

Microsoft pledged to be carbon-negative and water-positive by 2030. As of 2024, their total emissions were 30% higher than in 2020. Google leads with 25 terawatt-hours of annual energy use and 24 million cubic meters of water consumption, enough to fill over 9,600 Olympic swimming pools.

New AI data centers are being built with on-site natural gas plants because it's faster and cheaper than renewables, and no one is stopping them.

PROGRESS BEING MADE

The data center electricity mix is projected to flip from 60% fossil to 60% clean by 2035. Tech companies are signing massive renewable contracts. Nuclear partnerships and SMR development are accelerating.

WHAT'S STILL NEEDED

Mandatory, audited environmental reporting, not self-reported greenwashing. Accountability for actual consumption rather than carbon offset accounting tricks. Efficiency requirements for AI models themselves.

What Is AI Model Collapse and Why Does It Matter?.

AI companies scraped the open web for training data, then flooded it with synthetic output that degrades future training data. This is a textbook tragedy of the commons.

THE FRAMING WE'RE SOLD

"Model collapse is a technical research challenge! Scientists are working on it!"

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING

By April 2025, over 74% of newly created webpages contained AI-generated text. Model collapse is a phenomenon where AI models gradually degrade due to training on the outputs of previous models.

The open web is a commons. Everyone benefits from the shared resource of human-generated web content. Everyone is incentivized to extract from it and pollute it. No one is responsible for maintaining it.

We have solved commons problems before: environmental regulations, fishing quotas, spectrum licensing. But we've decided the internet is a regulation-free zone, and now we're watching it get strip-mined and polluted in real time.

PROGRESS BEING MADE

Research shows accumulating synthetic data alongside real data prevents collapse, while replacing real data causes it. Companies are licensing high-quality human-generated data. Watermarking synthetic data to filter it from training sets is improving.

WHAT'S STILL NEEDED

Industry-wide standards for synthetic data labeling. Preservation of high-quality human-generated training data. Ongoing research into detection and mitigation.

The Unifying Thread: 40 Years of Institutional Erosion.

AI isn't creating new problems. AI is stress-testing systems that were already broken.

A grid we refused to maintain. A labor market with no transition support. A regulatory environment captured by industry. A supply chain consolidated into oligopolies. A platform ecosystem optimized for engagement over truth. An environmental accounting system based on lies. A digital commons with no stewardship.

Every "AI problem" has the same root cause: we've spent 40 years systematically dismantling the institutions that would manage these exact kinds of challenges.

The fix isn't "better AI." The fix is antitrust enforcement, infrastructure investment, platform accountability, environmental regulation with teeth, worker transition support, and mandatory transparency.

But that would require admitting that markets don't self-regulate, corporations don't self-police, and "innovation" isn't automatically good. That's a political argument this country has been losing since Reagan.

Has Any Technology Caused Problems Like This Before?.

Every transformative technology has created analogous externalities. Every time, we eventually built guardrails, not because companies wanted them, but because citizens demanded them.

The printing press enabled propaganda. Radio enabled demagogues. The industrial revolution brought smog and exploitation. The automobile required a national highway system and killed pedestrians until we invented traffic laws.

Editorial standards. Environmental regulations. Labor protections. Safety requirements. AI is not different. The question is whether we'll build those guardrails before or after the worst damage is done, and that's a political question, not a technical one.

The Bottom Line.

AI companies have externalized enormous costs onto the environment, the information ecosystem, supply chains, and workers. Not because they're uniquely evil. Because that's what fast-moving industries do unless constrained.

The question isn't whether AI is "worth it." The question is whether we'll build the guardrails fast enough to capture benefits while managing harms.

Progress is being made on every front. But it's being made unevenly, often too slowly, and always against the resistance of companies that profit from the current arrangement.

The problems are real. The problems are political. And the solutions are entirely within our power, if we choose to use them.

Frequently Asked Questions.

Structured for AI citation and direct answer extraction.

What is generative engine optimization (GEO) and why does it matter for AI policy content?

GEO structures content so AI systems like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google AI Overviews can find, understand, and cite it. For policy content, this means short, citable claim-sentences paired with supporting evidence, so your argument appears in AI-generated answers, not just traditional search results.

Is AI responsible for the current power grid problems?

No. The U.S. power grid has been underfunded for decades. AI is the first major new electricity demand to arrive after generations of deferred infrastructure investment. The grid's fragility predates AI. The 2003 Northeast blackout and 2021 Texas freeze both demonstrated this long before generative AI existed.

Are AI hallucinations a solvable technical problem?

Yes, technically, but regulation accelerates solutions. Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash achieves 0.7% hallucination rates, proving low rates are achievable. The industry average remains near 35% because there's currently no legal liability for shipping AI that produces false information.

Is AI causing mass unemployment?

Not yet, and possibly not at the scale feared. Goldman Sachs estimates AI will increase unemployment by only 0.5 percentage points. The more important question is why the U.S. has no worker transition support for technological disruptions that economists have predicted for decades.

Why are computer memory prices rising so fast?

Three companies control global memory supply: Samsung, SK Hynix, and (until late 2025) Micron. When hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta placed open-ended AI infrastructure orders, the concentrated supply chain had no capacity to absorb the shock. This is an antitrust failure, not a supply chain mystery.

What is AI model collapse?

Model collapse is the gradual degradation of AI systems caused by training on AI-generated rather than human-generated content. As AI floods the web with synthetic text, 74% of new webpages by April 2025, future training data becomes polluted, reducing model quality over time.

What are the environmental costs of AI?

A Guardian investigation found that real emissions from Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple data centers were more than 600% higher than officially reported between 2020 and 2022. Microsoft's emissions were 30% higher in 2024 than in 2020, despite pledges to be carbon-negative by 2030. Creative accounting, not genuine sustainability, explains the gap.

What policy changes would actually fix AI's problems?

Antitrust enforcement to break up oligopolies in memory and cloud infrastructure. Grid modernization with streamlined permitting. Worker transition support like Germany's retraining programs or Denmark's flexicurity. Mandatory audited environmental reporting. Liability frameworks for harmful AI outputs. Content provenance labeling for AI-generated media.

Is this article anti-AI?

No. The argument is that AI's problems are political, which means they're solvable. Progress is being made on every front: cleaner energy, lower hallucination rates, better content standards. The question is whether we build governance fast enough to capture the benefits while managing the harms. That's an optimistic framing, not a doomsday one.

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